There have been changes in tourism here along the Northern Gulf Coast. They are subtle, but you may have noticed them all the same. Those changes are going to continue, too.
First of all, remember Snow Birds? They come from the northern states of the USA and Canada, where it gets cold in winter. Traditionally they come to our part of the world for at least part of the winter. It used to be that they would arrive just before, or just after, Christmas and the New Year—and stay between a month to three months. The birds are great for the area because they bring us tourist dollars during what has always been a slow season. They keep many of the restaurants open, and by extension, keep jobs going throughout the year. Many of the snowbirds consider this as much ‘home’ as they do their summer bases up in the north. I once spoke to a couple of winter visitors who said they felt the birds actually lived here, but just spent summer ‘up there’ to get away from the heat!
I’m not only hooked on traveling, I’m hooked on watching travel programs on television.
I’m not talking about the shows that are trying to get you to book a vacation with the sponsor, but the real behind the scenes, genuine and authentic versions.
There’s been a great series over the past couple of years called ‘Amazing Hotels – behind the front desk’. The concept behind the series is that a chef and a restaurant and hotel critic travel to various hotels around the world and actually work in them. Well, I say work in then but really, it’s a case of shadowing various members of staff in their day-to-day tasks. While this is happening, they gain insights into not only how those hotels work, but what the front-line workers think about the industry and the effect that tourism has on their lives.
They’ve featured huge spectacular hotels in Singapore and Dubai, safari lodges in Africa, small and very expensive hotels in remote parts of South America and very remote lodges in Iceland. Over the past two years they’ve visited a wide variety of extremely different locations. Without exception they’ve found that working in the hospitality and tourist industry has had a profound effect on the local workers and……….
I received a comment recently from a visitor who was asking if there was a ‘coalition of local Hotel/Motels that controlled prices during the summer season’.The gentleman thought that as rates were as low as $120 in the winter season and as high as $600 in the summer it must be a plot to rip off tourists.His suggestion was that such summer prices were beyond the resources of less affluent travelers and that such rates would discourage visitors from out of state.
Naturally I told him that such collusion was illegal and was very much discouraged within the industry. The Florida Restaurant & Lodging Association actually read out an anti-collusion statement before each meeting just to make sure that everyone is aware.
Not only that but to actively jointly raise prices would take away the element of competition that drives the tourism industry. I’m not saying such practices haven’t happened, but it doesn’t seem logical.
In fact I think there is a case here in Northwest Florida, and in other very seasonal destinations, where the low rates of winter are actually subsidized by the higher summer rates.Accommodation providers suffer from a difficulty in employing enough staff for the summer peaks. They don’t want to loose good year round employees by laying them off during the winter so in many cases use the profits generated in the summer to keep everything running during the winter. I think that applies to many restaurants too.
Basic economics would indicate that the law of supply and demand is working well.Winter rates are low to encourage whatever business can be attracted.Summer rates are high because there is a finite amount of stock and a limited amount of time when the majority of tourists can be here – essentially Memorial Day to Labor Day, although with schools breaking later and returning earlier that window is getting shorter.
Ideally our tourist season would be spread out allowing for a greater spread of rates. That would also encourage year round employment and less of a scramble for high season staffing.
All of us in the industry know this.If there is any collusion it’s to try and encourage tourists during the periods outside of the peak summer months. Various attempts have been made to rename this as ‘the best season’. That’s fine as a customer facing branding exercise but within the industry we must call the seasons what they are: low, shoulder, peak and (July 4th week) Super Peak.
Of course by attracting tourists in April, May, September and October we’re in danger of alienating our locals who consider these periods of perfect weather and low traffic as ‘their own’ and reward for putting up with gridlock traffic and no restaurant space in June, July and August. Not to mention Spring Break – so I won’t mention it.
A similar situation exists in Europe where school holidays (vacations) govern package holiday and flight prices.Another case of supply and demand.Airlines and tour companies have been accused of artificially raising prices during the vacations making travel for families beyond affordable.Some parents in the UK have been taking their kids out of school in term time to get lower prices.They are fined by the schools, but just factor the cost of the fines into their vacation costs.
The solution? Many little things I fear, each of which would have a small result but the culmination would be sizable.
Encourage the school systems to stagger their break periods.Some do this, but not enough.
Work with school systems to stop shortening summer breaks.
Go after markets that have different school vacation periods – Canada and Europe for example.UK Schools don’t break until July and don’t go back until September. They also have longer ‘half-term’ breaks in October and November and around Easter.Our weather in those times is perfect for the Northern Europeans.
Expand our marketing to those sectors that aren’t governed by school timetables.Millennials, younger boomers, empty nesters, the list is almost endless.
Actively promote lower rates outside summer. Many do this already.
Strengthen weekend break and short break marketing, out of high season, to places like Atlanta, Birmingham, Tallahassee and new markets thrown up by the likes of Allegiant Air and Southwest.
We also need to have some regional agreement on marketing.Continuing to market as just South Alabama, Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, etc., etc., and ignoring the fact that for some marketing a regional approach is more effective can be counter productive.Some work is being done in this direction and should be applauded and encouraged.
Of course we also have to get the message out to our visitors, like the gentleman who contacted me, that the reason the prices are high in the summer is exactly because we attract so many tourists at those times. Far from being put off they come anyway, and that lets us put up prices, subsidizing the less busy seasons.
As I say, basic economics. …..or perhaps there is a conspiracy that I haven’t been told about!
This article appeared in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, June 19, 2017
By this time of the year, we are usually in a good position to know what sort of success the tourism industry is having not only locally, but nationally and internationally, as well. At the midpoint of 2017, the state of the tourism market is throwing up all sorts of conflicting results.
Here in Northwest Florida, where only 1 percent of our tourism is currently of international origin, we think that our domestic, drive-in visitors make us immune from trends in other sectors. Strangely what happens in one market does have an effect on the other areas.
First, the good news. Our local hospitality professionals are reporting excellent advance bookings for the summer season and bed tax collections have been up for the first quarter of the year. Important also is that bookings for attractions and experiences have been very strong in the first quarter and advance bookings are ahead of last year.
Visitors to Florida were up by 2.5 percent for the first quarter of the year over 2016 with 3.1 million visitors arriving. Visitors from Canada and UK were down but an increase in domestic visitors more than filled the gap.
Statistics from credit card companies for Northwest Florida show an increase in spending from cards with Canadian, UK and German addresses. Okaloosa County’s DMO (Destination Marketing Organization) feels this can be put down to Canadians preferring our area to central and south Florida, and that new flights into New Orleans from London and Germany may be bringing visitors here.
On the other side of the coin, the strength of the dollar against overseas currencies and other factors may discourage Europeans from heading to U.S. destinations. Some areas of Florida are seeing drops in online inquiries from the UK by as much as 60 percent. Foursquare, a location technology company, says that America’s market share of international leisure tourism declined an average of 11 percent between October 2016 and March 2017. However, the financial attractiveness of traveling to Europe has seen a huge increase in Americans heading east across the Pond with an 80 percent jump in U.S. to UK bookings reported by Expedia, an on-line travel agent.
So, nothing really conclusive, but the trend is currently good for Northwest Florida, which relies on domestic tourists. But with fewer internationals coming to the U.S. and more Americans traveling to Europe, the U.S. destinations that usually welcome overseas guests may start looking at attracting “our” domestic visitors. That’s not a good portent for 2018.
If the proposal to close Brand USA and the cut to Visit Florida’s budget from $100 million to $25 million goes ahead, then the Sunshine State will loose out to California and other domestic and foreign places. Areas like Orlando and south Florida may use their budgets and publicity to try to steal “our” visitors. It’s a distinct possibility.
It’s essential that the Gulf Coast destinations redouble their efforts to keep our exiting visitors and develop new markets as soon as possible. Nothing is definite, and we look set to have a really good 2017, but 2018 … who knows?
Martin Owen is an independent consultant to the tourism industry and owner of Owen Organization in Shalimar. Readers can email questions to martin@owenorganization.com.
It should be noted that since this piece was written, the Florida Legislature have authorized a $75million budget for Visit Florida, albeit with severe restrictions on their ability to operate effectively.
This article appeared in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday May 13, 2017
Our third president, Thomas Jefferson said “Beer, if drunk in moderation, softens the temper, cheers the spirit and promotes health.” He could have course said the same thing about tourism, particularly if combined with beer!
I recently visited Asheville, North Carolina, on a research mission – OK, it was vacation but I’ll stick with my story. We took in tours of a couple of breweries – New Belgium and Sierra Nevada both have large establishments there. These are craft brewers, albeit big ones who needed to have presence on the East Coast. Both companies started up out west and have found the combination of location, water supply and culture in Asheville matched their needs. There are also smaller brewers located in the area along with hard cider makers. The interesting thing is that these companies have become an integral part of the local tourist industry.
This article was printed in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, April 23, 2017.
When I first came to the Emerald Coast back in 2003, I was struck by how many people appeared to be in the real estate business. It appeared that every other person I met was a Realtor. That was before the economy took a nose dive, of course, but in the intervening years a significant number of friends and acquaintances have stayed involved in buying and selling property. That’s always a sign of a vibrant economy.
What’s that got to do with tourism, I hear you asking? Well, the largest sector of the accommodations available to visitors here are vacation rentals — whether they be condos or family homes. Invariably these are purchased not as primary residences, but as investment properties to make money over a long period or to benefit from rental income. The added value of this is that the owner of a rental property also has a beach lifestyle property for their own use.
This article first appeared in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, April 16, 2017.
I’ve discussed recently the many changes that are coming to our local tourist business — generational changes, increases in fly-in visitors, a demand for better level of service and value, etc. I think we’re all surprised by the speed of these changes, thinking that it will take years for them to actually affect our daily lives. However, look how fast Uber, Airbnb and similar new products have altered the landscape.
Back at the end of March, British Airways started to fly non-stop to New Orleans from London, bringing four flights a week. Later in May, Condor, the German airline, will have two flights a week from Frankfurt. While British Airways is banking on a mix of business and leisure travelers, Condor is aimed squarely at the vacation market. These two new routes add to the already existent Toronto flights, routing vacationers into the northern Gulf of Mexico region. There may be no immediate effect on Northwest Florida, apparently giving plenty of planning time.
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but I do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into booking.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about reviewing their plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would impact potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed largely from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we’ve seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations, filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago, which you can see here. https://www.facebook.com/OwenOrganization/posts/1318630581555982
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into buying.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would affect potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed pretty much from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for a Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago (https://youtu.be/X35rvweRNsg )
In regions like Northwest Florida, we have to step up our game in attracting new domestic markets, and stay on track with long term plans for International guests. After all, NWFL is The Deep South, known for its charm, good manners and welcoming locals.
Tourism is and always has been at the whim of changes to the global scene. It’s success is due to it’s ability to change direction and adapt. As long as we’re aware of trends and move fast we can still welcome our guests in increasing numbers.
But it’s not all gloom. One country is showing huge increasing interest in visiting the USA. Searches for flights to the USA have surged 60% since January – from Russia!
Back in 500 BC, tourism wasn’t much as we know it today. However, in Ephesus in what is now Turkey, a gentleman called Heraclitus was pondering, as ancients tended to do. “Change’ he said (in Greek) ‘is the only constant in life’.
We can’t look into the future with any certainty, and no matter how informed or clever we are, there’s always something ready to throw a wrench (or spanner, for my English friends) into the works.
This certainly applies to tourism, of course. We know that nothing will remain the same. The visitors of today will age, and with age comes changes in needs and changes in desires. Possibly also changes in circumstances. Different demographics emerge – see the rise of the Boomers and how as their children grew and left home, their vacation choices changed. The emergence of the Zoomers – Boomers with Zip – who seem to be mirroring (but with more money) the ways of the Millennials. This Millennial group are always touted as having completely different needs to prior generations, but research seems to be proving that generalization wrong, or at least to be too simplistic.
Then there’s the change from where visitors come. On a local level, that shows up when a neighboring state or country experiences a change in fortune (for better or worse) that increases or decreases visitation. On a world wide level the emergence of new economies has major impacts. Look at the enormous increase in world travel from China and India. Of course the ‘wrench in the works’ law comes into play, and the burgeoning Brazilian market (for the USA in general and Florida in particular) has taken a major hit with Brazil’s economic woes. Same applies to Russia. However in the long game, these are probably blips.
The thing is, tourism is increasing and has been for many decades. It’s an almost unstoppable effect as humans are forever inquisitive and of an exploring nature (even if it’s ‘soft’ exploring!).
The chart above (From the US Department of Commerce and National Travel and Tourism Office) shows the continuing rise in tourists to the USA since just 1999. Yes, the ‘wrench’ effect applied following 9/11 in 2001 and again with the global recession of 2008/9, but the overall effect is ever increasing numbers.
The Skift report chart above shows the trend and forecast for international visitors to the USA. Since the post 9/11 dip and the wobble 2007/9 the results and forecast are ever upwards.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (in their Economic Impact 2015 – USA report
http://ow.ly/N9lX3039BTN) show that recent years have seen travel and tourism growing at a faster rate than both the wider economy and other significant factors like automotive and healthcare sectors. Visitors from emerging economies are now a 46% share of international visitors, up from 38% in 2000. The problems in Russia and Brazil will have a slowing effect but falling oil prices (which affect living costs, increases disposable income and lowers air fares) will provide a contrary influence. So, expansion of tourism is predicted to continue at a stronger pace than last year.
Back to Heraclitus. Change is the only constant. We know that the future will not be the same as the past. If we rely on doing the same things as we always have – if we don’t at least look at the possibilities for change, we’re going to fail. We have to reinvent, and we have prepare for change.
‘Destination Think’ interviewed Jan Hutton, the Chief Marketing Officer of Gold Coast Tourism (The Gold Coast is famous and well established tourist region on the east coast of Australia), Jan said:
“Our world is precarious, many legacy industries are crumbling and amid this mayhem, tourism is flourishing. Tourism is a top priority for every country around the world now, as a means to grow revenue, grow job creation, grow industry, grow investment, grow trade – it is the sharp edge that can lead to so much more for a destination. This means that we now need to be agile, relevant and smarter than ever in an incredibly competitive landscape.”
The whole interview can be found here: http://ow.ly/1tJr3039FsS
Getting back to Heraclitus again, we must be preparing for the change to our business that will inevitably arrive. We must look at where our visitors not only traditionally originate and where they are starting to come from, but where they will come from in the future. We must be ready to adapt to the way people will think not only in the near future, but in 5 and 10 years. We may not be completely accurate in our predictions, but we can make pretty reliable guesses. The one thing we will know for certain – things WILL change.