This column appeared in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday April 30, 2017
I’m hooked on documentary TV programs that feature behind-the-scenes insights of famous hotels around the world. I’m amazed at how these huge organizations (and sometimes small ones) can distill the actions of so many hospitality professionals into one aim — that being to provide the highest level of service to each individual guest. If you’re a traveler, you know that great service doesn’t just happen. It’s a combination of talent, skills, training and endless practice to perfect.
In the Disney world, I understand you don’t interview for a job, you “audition” to become part of the “cast.” Some organizations talk about “putting on the show” before they face the public, but whatever it’s called, providing excellent hospitality service only comes naturally to a few people.
This article was printed in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, April 23, 2017.
When I first came to the Emerald Coast back in 2003, I was struck by how many people appeared to be in the real estate business. It appeared that every other person I met was a Realtor. That was before the economy took a nose dive, of course, but in the intervening years a significant number of friends and acquaintances have stayed involved in buying and selling property. That’s always a sign of a vibrant economy.
What’s that got to do with tourism, I hear you asking? Well, the largest sector of the accommodations available to visitors here are vacation rentals — whether they be condos or family homes. Invariably these are purchased not as primary residences, but as investment properties to make money over a long period or to benefit from rental income. The added value of this is that the owner of a rental property also has a beach lifestyle property for their own use.
This article first appeared in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, April 16, 2017.
I’ve discussed recently the many changes that are coming to our local tourist business — generational changes, increases in fly-in visitors, a demand for better level of service and value, etc. I think we’re all surprised by the speed of these changes, thinking that it will take years for them to actually affect our daily lives. However, look how fast Uber, Airbnb and similar new products have altered the landscape.
Back at the end of March, British Airways started to fly non-stop to New Orleans from London, bringing four flights a week. Later in May, Condor, the German airline, will have two flights a week from Frankfurt. While British Airways is banking on a mix of business and leisure travelers, Condor is aimed squarely at the vacation market. These two new routes add to the already existent Toronto flights, routing vacationers into the northern Gulf of Mexico region. There may be no immediate effect on Northwest Florida, apparently giving plenty of planning time.
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but I do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into booking.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about reviewing their plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would impact potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed largely from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we’ve seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations, filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago, which you can see here. https://www.facebook.com/OwenOrganization/posts/1318630581555982
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into buying.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would affect potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed pretty much from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for a Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago (https://youtu.be/X35rvweRNsg )
In regions like Northwest Florida, we have to step up our game in attracting new domestic markets, and stay on track with long term plans for International guests. After all, NWFL is The Deep South, known for its charm, good manners and welcoming locals.
Tourism is and always has been at the whim of changes to the global scene. It’s success is due to it’s ability to change direction and adapt. As long as we’re aware of trends and move fast we can still welcome our guests in increasing numbers.
But it’s not all gloom. One country is showing huge increasing interest in visiting the USA. Searches for flights to the USA have surged 60% since January – from Russia!
This column was published in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday March 2, 2017.
I’ve been asked a number of times to explain how bed tax, or Tourist Development Tax, is used. There also have been some letters suggesting that it be used for items or services that aren’t currently covered, so I thought a brief explanation might be useful. Please bear in mind that I’m not a lawyer, but it would appear that even some lawyers can’t agree on the interpretation of some bed tax clauses, so I’ve gone with what the TDCs, tax collectors and others usually use.
You may remember that bed tax was set up to be charged on short-term rentals in designated tax areas. Some counties implement across the whole county (Escambia for example) while others have specified tax areas (e.g. Okaloosa and Walton). The tax is collected by the rental companies and hotels, and paid to the tax-collecting body of the county. Owners can pay direct to the county, too.
I recently had the opportunity to participate in a podcast called Lodging Leaders with Jonathan Albano.
Lodging Leaders brings together the best and brightest minds of the hotel industry to share their stories, insights and actionable advice. Each week, LodgingMetrics.com founder and entrepreneur Jon Albano interviews inspiring hoteliers and leading industry professionals that have produced amazing results.
This article was published in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, March 11, 2017.
When you go on vacation, how do you get advice on where to go, stay and what to do? Do you visit a travel agent or look at ads in magazines or on television? It appears (surprise, surprise!) that the way we get that information is changing.
I’m a picture taker. I hesitate to say photographer, but I’ve been taking photos since I was 7. I’m not sure if I travel to take photos, or take photos because I’m a traveler. Instead of joining a photography club, I’m on a number of online forums that seem to have taken their place, and I’m amazed at the number of posts that start off “I’m going on vacation, can anyone tell me where to go and what to see?” They’re not just asking about photographic opportunities, but looking for wider suggestions, and from people who are neither friends nor, apparently, experts.
For those not on our mailing list, here’s the March newsletter!
Navarre Beach.
Last month, we discussed how some politicians in Tallahassee, the Florida State capital, were playing politics with the future of Visit Florida, the State’s destination marketing organization. That fight isn’t over as we’ll report.
This month other politicians both here in the USA and in other parts of the world are having influences on tourism in ways they cannot predict.
Good news however is that Culinary Tourism is booming. Read on….
Political shenanigans
The move by Speaker Corcoran to de-fund Visit Florida continues, although he has indicated that he no longer wants to close the organization down, merely to limit its ability to operate and drastically reduce its budget. Governor Scott is fiercely fighting this along with the Tourism Industry and it would appear, members of the Senate. The fight is not over and if you’re involved in the industry in Florida, I urge you to a) contact your representatives to support Visit Florida and b) attend Tourism Day in Tallahassee this month to lobby in person. Please contact me if you need details of how to attend Tourism Day.
In what promises to be a difficult year for international tourism, further obstacles are being dreamt up by politicians on either side of the Atlantic.
The strong US dollar has the potential for discouraging European tourists in particular from visiting the USA this year. Some of those European economies are not strong currently and the USA could be expensive for them.
We now have the three year-old dispute between the EU and the USA over visas. The EU parliament consider that the countries of the community should be considered as one (that has resulted in the UK wanting ‘out’ with their Brexit vote), although the US still recognizes individual states. The US has refused to allow some EU states access to the Visa Waiver Program which allows visa free travel into the US. Poland, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania and Cyprus don’t meet the US security requirements. The EU has said that either the US accept these countries or all US Citizens will require visas to visit any EU country.
This is an old dispute and has now reached the ‘Who blinks first’ stage. Despite the strong dollar which makes overseas travel attractive, American tourists would be very discouraged if they were required to get a visa. Europe needs those US dollars after a lackluster 2016 tourist season following terrorist attacks, and although advance demand has been strong, it wouldn’t take much to scupper that.
Traveling the other way – east to west – is also potentially threatened. I mentioned the strength of the dollar being a hazard, but what has been called the ‘Trump Effect’ is apparently causing a softening of travel demand. I’m not making any political points, just reporting on figures coming from sources in the tourism industry.
It appears that first announcements of a travel ban had a detrimental effect on European tourists plans to visit the US. I’ve been asked why, say, a German tourist would feel threatened by a ban on travelers from certain middle east countries. I can’t answer that easily, but believe me they are worried. Even the UK tourists who believe they are part of a ‘special relationship’ with the US, are as a group being cautious. Suffice to say that enquiries for flights to the US are down an average of 22%. Tourism research firms are projecting a loss of 6.3 million visitors ($10.8 billion in lost revenue). The tourism board of New York City has predicted that 300,000 fewer tourists will visit than did in 2016. Previously New York was predicting an increase of 400,000. Philadelphia has already lost one conference worth an estimated $7m as a result of the proposed travel ban.
Even the Canadian market is seeing a drop in the number of tourists intending to travel below the 49th.
That’s International tourism of course and it’s been suggested that it won’t affect US destinations that don’t cater for Internationals (like Northwest Florida, where only 1% of tourists are from outside the US). That may be true, but of course the markets that attract overseas travelers are hardly likely to sit and do nothing. They will want to find domestic tourists to replace the foreigners and they are not averse to creating marketing campaigns and making offers to lure those domestic guests away from places like the Northern Gulf Coast.
As the old Chinese curse says “May you live in interesting times”.
It’s not all bad news though…..
95% of travelers have said that they engage in unique and memorable food or beverage experiences while traveling, according to the World Food Travel Association ( I guess that they would say that!). Another research organization, Destination Analysts, claim that 50.7% of Millennials won’t visit a destination that doesn’t have good restaurants – although they don’t define what makes a good restaurant.
Before you state that Millennials are just children, remember that the first Millennials turn 35 this year! Also important is that the Centennial Generation (Generation Z or ‘Post Millennials’) are now just beginning to enter the workforce, so are beginning to effect the market.
Certainly the younger generations are having a strong influence on their parents and grandparents when it comes to food. A recent report by the HAAS Center (part of the University of West Florida) was created to examine tourism trends in Okaloosa County (home to Destin, Fort Walton Beach and Okaloosa Island). They found that although tourist spending in restaurants in the county increased in 2015 more than 15% over 2011, its revenue per seat had grown only 12%, where peer and competing counties had grown by 28%. The competing counties are where most (but certainly not all) of the new and more creative restaurants are found. Interestingly, the area has seen an increase in the number of up-scale grocery stores (Whole Food Market, Fresh Market and Publix). Whereas in 2011 tourists spent twice as much in restaurants as they did in grocery stores, it’s likely that 2016 will see tourists spend more in grocery stores than in restaurants for the first time.
The take away (sorry!) is that those tourists are seeking culinary experiences, and finding them.
Which brings me to the really good news for my home area. I recently attended the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association’s annual awards ceremony for the North West Florida region. The display of talent at that event was stunning. The quality of the areas chefs, wait staff and managers was exceptional and their depth of knowledge, experience and creativity was at least a match for more recognized tourist areas. A similar level of expertise was evident in the hotel, resort and accommodation sector.
That Culinary Tourism is growing makes really good news for the industry as a whole. It’s also great for The Northern Gulf Coast of Florida. The Tourism Industry worldwide is going for Culinary Tourism in a big way from the traditional destinations of Europe to the New World and areas like Australasia. Even Costa Rica getting in on the act. Don’t underestimate the Cruise lines either.
This article appeared in The Northwest Florida Daily News Talking Tourism Column on Sunday, February 26.
There is trouble in Tallahassee. Some lawmakers wish to defund and close Visit Florida, the state’s Destination Marketing Organization (DMO) and tourism promoter. There are a large number of people who are opposed to this — to be honest, the whole of the tourism industry. I don’t wish to be political, but you know I’m unashamedly pro-tourism, and I thought you may like to know what the two sides are presenting.
In one corner is Speaker of the House Richard Corcoran, R-Land O’Lakes, who feels that state tourism neither works nor is necessary. Not only is Corcoran proposing to defund Visit Florida, he’s proposing that local DMOs also be wound up. The argument is that tourists came before the state started marketing, and will continue to come regardless.
Opposing is the tourism industry — hoteliers, restaurants, theme parks, charter boat captains, attractions, guides, housekeepers, waiters and waitresses, taxi and Uber drivers — and anyone who does business with the tourism industry (in total, there are 1.4 million tourism job holders in Florida). This group believes that in the competitive tourism marketplace today (where Florida not only competes with New York, California and other states, but with the countries of the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East, India, Asia and South America) a public/private funding partnership is essential for continued growth and, indeed, just to maintain position.
We just spent a long weekend in New Orleans, which is one of my favorite cities. It’s totally unique. I was first introduced to NOLA in 1972 as a young travel agent on a U.S. tour (seven cities in 10 days!). Being taken to Bourbon Street as a 20-year-old was quite an eye-opener. Luckily my wife lived in New Orleans for quite awhile and really is “local,” so we’re not exactly tourists when we visit at least four times a year.
The city is a real case study for tourism, joining an historic center with a mix of cultures plus being a living, thriving business hub. It has nearly year-round tourism, although the local businesses are only too aware when they have fewer tourists. The Crescent City is known world over for Mardi Gras (or Carnival, as the locals term it) which is both a blessing and a curse as it attracts enormous numbers of tourists. Those tourists tend to consider partying an Olympic sport, which adds a whole new level to tourist management. Natural events like Hurricane Katrina also have put an added strain on the city, and its recovery from a tourism point of view has been nothing short of remarkable.
The great thing about NOLA ………
